Mundial 2026 · Predicciones y resultados

Mundial 2026 · Predicciones y resultados

Fase de grupos · 72 partidos · modelo ex ante

9 jugados · 63 pendientesAccuracy = 33.3%Brier = 0.624
11 de junio
Mexico2 – 0South Africa
Mexico City
L100.0%
E0.0%
V0.0%
✓
South Korea2 – 1Czech Republic
Zapopan
L35.0%
E29.1%
V35.9%
✗
12 de junio
Canada1 – 1Bosnia and Herzegovina
Toronto
L90.6%
E0.0%
V9.3%
✗
United States4 – 1Paraguay
Inglewood
L34.0%
E31.1%
V34.9%
✗
13 de junio
Australia2 – 0Turkey
Vancouver
L29.6%
E27.1%
V43.3%
✗
Brazil1 – 1Morocco
East Rutherford
L35.0%
E29.1%
V35.9%
✗
Haiti0 – 1Scotland
Foxborough
L13.4%
E22.8%
V63.8%
✓
Qatar1 – 1Switzerland
Santa Clara
L8.3%
E17.0%
V74.7%
✗
14 de junio
Germany7 – 1Curaçao
Houston
L100.0%
E0.0%
V0.0%
✓
Ivory CoastvsEcuador
Philadelphia
L11.4%
E23.3%
V65.3%
⚽ Ecuador · 65.3%
NetherlandsvsJapan
Arlington
L27.9%
E43.4%
V28.7%
⚽ Japan · 43.4%
SwedenvsTunisia
Guadalupe
L34.0%
E31.1%
V34.9%
⚽ Tunisia · 34.9%
15 de junio
BelgiumvsEgypt
Seattle
L56.1%
E19.7%
V24.3%
⚽ Belgium · 56.1%
IranvsNew Zealand
Inglewood
L90.6%
E0.0%
V9.3%
⚽ Iran · 90.6%
Saudi ArabiavsUruguay
Miami Gardens
L8.3%
E17.0%
V74.7%
⚽ Uruguay · 74.7%
SpainvsCape Verde
Atlanta
L100.0%
E0.0%
V0.0%
⚽ Spain · 100.0%⚠ saturado
16 de junio
ArgentinavsAlgeria
Kansas City
L60.2%
E21.2%
V18.6%
⚽ Argentina · 60.2%
AustriavsJordan
Santa Clara
L60.2%
E21.2%
V18.6%
⚽ Austria · 60.2%
FrancevsSenegal
East Rutherford
L56.1%
E19.7%
V24.3%
⚽ France · 56.1%
IraqvsNorway
Foxborough
L11.1%
E25.1%
V63.8%
⚽ Norway · 63.8%
17 de junio
EnglandvsCroatia
Arlington
L53.1%
E22.1%
V24.8%
⚽ England · 53.1%
GhanavsPanama
Toronto
L13.4%
E22.8%
V63.8%
⚽ Panama · 63.8%
PortugalvsDR Congo
Houston
L93.7%
E0.0%
V6.2%
⚽ Portugal · 93.7%
UzbekistanvsColombia
Mexico City
L11.4%
E23.3%
V65.3%
⚽ Colombia · 65.3%
18 de junio
CanadavsQatar
Vancouver
L100.0%
E0.0%
V0.0%
⚽ Canada · 100.0%⚠ saturado
Czech RepublicvsSouth Africa
Atlanta
L56.1%
E19.7%
V24.3%
⚽ Czech Republic · 56.1%
MexicovsSouth Korea
Zapopan
L49.0%
E34.7%
V16.3%
⚽ Mexico · 49.0%
SwitzerlandvsBosnia and Herzegovina
Inglewood
L76.4%
E0.0%
V23.6%
⚽ Switzerland · 76.4%
19 de junio
BrazilvsHaiti
Philadelphia
L93.7%
E0.0%
V6.2%
⚽ Brazil · 93.7%
ScotlandvsMorocco
Foxborough
L11.4%
E23.3%
V65.3%
⚽ Morocco · 65.3%
TurkeyvsParaguay
Santa Clara
L27.9%
E43.4%
V28.7%
⚽ Paraguay · 43.4%
United StatesvsAustralia
Seattle
L34.0%
E31.1%
V34.9%
⚽ Australia · 34.9%
20 de junio
EcuadorvsCuraçao
Kansas City
L100.0%
E0.0%
V0.0%
⚽ Ecuador · 100.0%⚠ saturado
GermanyvsIvory Coast
Toronto
L54.2%
E20.5%
V25.3%
⚽ Germany · 54.2%
NetherlandsvsSweden
Houston
L60.2%
E21.2%
V18.6%
⚽ Netherlands · 60.2%
TunisiavsJapan
Guadalupe
L11.4%
E23.3%
V65.3%
⚽ Japan · 65.3%
21 de junio
BelgiumvsIran
Inglewood
L54.2%
E20.5%
V25.3%
⚽ Belgium · 54.2%
New ZealandvsEgypt
Vancouver
L13.4%
E22.8%
V63.8%
⚽ Egypt · 63.8%
SpainvsSaudi Arabia
Atlanta
L100.0%
E0.0%
V0.0%
⚽ Spain · 100.0%⚠ saturado
UruguayvsCape Verde
Miami Gardens
L93.7%
E0.0%
V6.2%
⚽ Uruguay · 93.7%
22 de junio
ArgentinavsAustria
Arlington
L68.8%
E24.2%
V7.1%
⚽ Argentina · 68.8%
FrancevsIraq
Philadelphia
L93.7%
E0.0%
V6.2%
⚽ France · 93.7%
JordanvsAlgeria
Santa Clara
L11.4%
E23.3%
V65.3%
⚽ Algeria · 65.3%
NorwayvsSenegal
East Rutherford
L34.0%
E31.1%
V34.9%
⚽ Senegal · 34.9%
23 de junio
ColombiavsDR Congo
Zapopan
L90.6%
E0.0%
V9.3%
⚽ Colombia · 90.6%
EnglandvsGhana
Foxborough
L100.0%
E0.0%
V0.0%
⚽ England · 100.0%⚠ saturado
PanamavsCroatia
Toronto
L11.4%
E23.3%
V65.3%
⚽ Croatia · 65.3%
PortugalvsUzbekistan
Houston
L90.6%
E0.0%
V9.3%
⚽ Portugal · 90.6%
24 de junio
Bosnia and HerzegovinavsQatar
Seattle
L34.0%
E31.1%
V34.9%
⚽ Qatar · 34.9%
CanadavsSwitzerland
Vancouver
L34.0%
E31.1%
V34.9%
⚽ Switzerland · 34.9%
MexicovsCzech Republic
Mexico City
L60.2%
E21.2%
V18.6%
⚽ Mexico · 60.2%
MoroccovsHaiti
Atlanta
L90.6%
E0.0%
V9.3%
⚽ Morocco · 90.6%
ScotlandvsBrazil
Miami Gardens
L8.3%
E17.0%
V74.7%
⚽ Brazil · 74.7%
South AfricavsSouth Korea
Guadalupe
L11.4%
E23.3%
V65.3%
⚽ South Korea · 65.3%
25 de junio
CuraçaovsIvory Coast
Philadelphia
L10.0%
E0.0%
V90.0%
⚽ Ivory Coast · 90.0%
EcuadorvsGermany
East Rutherford
L34.0%
E31.1%
V34.9%
⚽ Germany · 34.9%
JapanvsSweden
Arlington
L60.2%
E21.2%
V18.6%
⚽ Japan · 60.2%
ParaguayvsAustralia
Santa Clara
L34.0%
E31.1%
V34.9%
⚽ Australia · 34.9%
TunisiavsNetherlands
Kansas City
L8.3%
E17.0%
V74.7%
⚽ Netherlands · 74.7%
United StatesvsTurkey
Inglewood
L34.0%
E31.1%
V34.9%
⚽ Turkey · 34.9%
26 de junio
Cape VerdevsSaudi Arabia
Houston
L30.3%
E25.3%
V44.4%
⚽ Saudi Arabia · 44.4%
EgyptvsIran
Seattle
L13.9%
E44.3%
V41.8%
⚽ Iran · 44.3%
New ZealandvsBelgium
Vancouver
L0.0%
E0.0%
V100.0%
⚽ Belgium · 100.0%⚠ saturado
NorwayvsFrance
Foxborough
L11.4%
E23.3%
V65.3%
⚽ France · 65.3%
SenegalvsIraq
Toronto
L54.2%
E20.5%
V25.3%
⚽ Senegal · 54.2%
UruguayvsSpain
Zapopan
L11.1%
E25.1%
V63.8%
⚽ Spain · 63.8%
27 de junio
AlgeriavsAustria
Kansas City
L27.9%
E43.4%
V28.7%
⚽ Austria · 43.4%
ColombiavsPortugal
Miami Gardens
L29.6%
E27.1%
V43.3%
⚽ Portugal · 43.3%
CroatiavsGhana
Philadelphia
L93.7%
E0.0%
V6.2%
⚽ Croatia · 93.7%
DR CongovsUzbekistan
Atlanta
L29.6%
E27.1%
V43.3%
⚽ Uzbekistan · 43.3%
JordanvsArgentina
Arlington
L0.0%
E0.0%
V100.0%
⚽ Argentina · 100.0%⚠ saturado
PanamavsEngland
East Rutherford
L8.3%
E17.0%
V74.7%
⚽ England · 74.7%

Metodología

ModeloDixon-Coles + Regresión multinomial + Calibración isotónica
Partidos acertados3 de 9
Brier holdout (2024)0.563 (baseline uniforme: 0.667)
Actualizado2026-06-14
L = local · E = empate · V = visitante. Las probabilidades son ex ante — calculadas antes del partido. ✓ = favorito del modelo acertó · ✗ = falló. Fuente de resultados: dataset abierto (latencia ~24 h). Este proyecto es un experimento cuantitativo, no un sistema apostador.